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Wish You Create a New Generation of Challenge:Part(2) continued from Part(1)

Ⅲ. What can and should be done?

1. Covid19
 ーAggravated or prolonged infections due to policy mistakes
 ・In spite of progress of vaccination, the Covid19 infection does not seem to slow down  or converge as one might hope. There are at least two man-made problems.
・One is poor or mistaken management of policies, and the other is lack of help from Rich countries to poor countries.

・Outstanding example of mistaken policy actions is found in the case of Donald Trump who distrusted science and delayed the execution of relevant policies and aggravated infection dreadfully and consequently victimized American people worst in the world.
Jair Bolsonaro made a similar mistake in Brazil. Mr.Boris Johnson of UK made serious policy mistake at the early stage of spread resulting in largest casualties in Europe,

・The recent experience of Japan suffering from the fourth wave of infection may be the case of failed policies. Relying on relatively low cases and deaths and docile attitude of people, the government has been adopting only lukewarm policies and has failed to secure vaccines in time which may well prolong infections.
・In sharp contrast, Israel and Taiwan are the successful cases. They trust science and make use of it effectively to plan and execute anti-virus policy strategically.

ーLack of help from rich countries to poor countries
・Another issue is the lack of help from rich countries to poor countries.
・Rich countries secured vaccines and jabbed them early to prevent infection, while, poor countries cannot secure vaccines in addition to their poor hygiene conditions and deficient medical systems.
・Rich countries provide assistance to poor countries by international cooperation  such as COVAX sponsored by WHO. However the collected fund is mush too small relative to the needed amount.
・Failure to help poor countries will multiply the infections in poor countries and will feed back to the rest of the world.

ーWhat should be done
・To overcome Covid19 pandemic to minimize its damage, what we need to do are:
1. Use science, plan comprehensive and effective policies and execute Strategically,
2. Help poor countries and needy people to prevent the pandemic from magnified,
3. Respect the lives of people most and plan and execute policies accordingly.

2. Climate change
ーWhy plans to tackle climate change are insufficient
・The governments and industries are doing their best coping with reasonable economic growth hoping the growth will enable further technological progress.
・In contrast, the warming of atmosphere proceeds much faster than the pace of economic effort of expanding the policies and innovating technologies, thus the gap between what is needed and what is done enlarges.

ーWhat should be done
 ・We need to plan our policies from the viewpoint of what should be done to stop atmosphere warming rather than what can be done on economic and technological base.
・If we tackle the issue from the standpoint of what should be done, it may well accelerate technological progress vouched by necessary budgetary expansion.
・Critical is our recognition of the importance to protect the precious planet on which we live.

3. US-China hegemony confrontation
 ーDanger of de-coupling of the world economy
・US-China hegemony confrontation is dangerous and destructive at least in the sense that it will lead to de-coupling of the world economy.
・As in the case of high tech industry, the US tries to exclude Chinese major high tech. firms, such as Huawei Technology out of the world market by shutting out supplies and  purchases.
・China retaliates by developing its self-contained industrial bloc to assure the survival of Chinese economic bloc, thus the world economy will be de-coupled.
・De-coupling of the economy will inevitably shrink the world economy because of cutting off international supply chains which victimizes other countries and peoples in the world.

ーWhat drives hegemony
・Professor Graham Allison of Harvard university analyzes the US-China confrontation today is a contemporary case of hegemony war, which has been repeated in the world history since the case of Athens and Sparta hegemony war in an ancient time.
・Why people seek for hegemony. There may be two major reasons. One is instinctive desire of people to obtain power to control others, and the other is exclusion of  heterogeneous entity.
・The US has been monopolizing the overwhelming power to control the world since WWII and wants to perpetuate the position by eliminating competitors.
・The US believes in “democracy,” and wishes to exclude heterogenous country such as China which US regards “socialist autarchy.”

 ーWhat should be done
・Although pursuit for hegemony has been instinctive desire in the world history for a long time, it should be outdated in today’s world and it is dangerous because it may well lead to actual war and harm or destruct the world.
・Exclusion of heterogeneous competitors stems from narrow sightedness of people and leaders who do not understand different histories, cultures and values of other nations and people.
・Recognition of obsolescence of hegemony and broader understanding of  heterogeneity of the world may be the virtue we may have to look for future generations.


4. Economic and social differentials
  ーWhat should be done
 ・Increases of economic and social differentials reflect a complex of many diverse reasons, and the differentials in turn give rise to many serious problems of contemporary world such as political turmoils, spread of CV pandemic and  Worsening of climate change etc.
・To minimize the enlargement of differentials and the problems caused by large differentials, most critical is our mindset of respecting diversity of people and The sense of inclusion of heterogeneous diversity.


5. What are required to resolve issues of contemporary world?
・Covid19:respect lives of people and plan and execute needed policies strategically
・Climate change: keen recognition to protect precious and vulnerable planet
・Global confrontation: awareness of obsolescence of hegemony, Respect history and heterogeneous cultures of diverse world.
・Differentials: respect diversity of people and the sense of inclusion of diversity


Ⅳ. Great Potential Roles of Young Generation
 ・Many of listeners of today belong to so called “Generation Z” who have been born during the period of 1990s and 2000s; namely, age between teenagers to early thirties.
・You have outstanding characteristics which preceding generations to not have.
・You have outstanding potentials to change the society for the future.

・To tacle the difficult problems of contemporary world, which we discssed at length and in detal so fa and to build a better society for the future, I look forward to the great  potentials of young generation. I would like to mention 3 of such potentials.

1. A generation of new communication technologies
・You were born in the era when information communication technology has developed remarkably.
・Since many of you have grown playing with mobile terminals such as i-phones or I- pads, sending and exchanging information is part of your life.
・You are born netizens, or citizens equipped with technology of networking.
・By networking with each other you become a member of an integrated human  community of the world.
・This is an outstanding feature of your generation and your strength.

2. A generation being aware of limitation of the planet
・You are the generation grown witnessing many disastrous hazards on the earth, much more so than previous generations.
・You must have seen destructive typhoons, abnormal heavy rains, floods, forest fires, and particularly in Japan, huge and violent earthquakes and subsequent Tsumani.
・You must have seen and heard by media even more serious hazards like draughts, large  scale wild fire, sinking of low level islands in the sea, which previous generations have seldom experienced.
・This is because much of these natural hazards have been aggravated by so-called “greenhouse effect, namely, warming the atmosphere temperature, which has been  accelerating recently.
・The planet we live looks a beautiful blue planet in the view of astronauts.
・The planet as beautiful as this is perhaps the only one in this entire universe.
・The unique beauty, safety and comfort of this earth is assured only by very thin atmosphere and clean ocean covering the globe.
・This thin film of air and water is being polluted by greenhouse gas emission of ever expanding industrial activities.
・Since young generation has been witnessing horrendous hazards and environmental degradation of this precious and vulnerable film of the earth, you are more keenly aware and worried about the climate change than preceding generations.


3. A generation bound to think of global human community
・Being aware of the limitation of the planet and familiar and equipped with advanced  communication technologies, each one of you can raise your voice against problems of the world and mobilize a movement to change the society.
・Greta Thunberg was only a 16 year old Swedish student when she raised her voice to criticize the flaws of climate policies of the world. Thanks to social networking  media, many millions of people now listen to what she saids and try to work together.
・In this sense, your generation has a tremendous potential to change the world to  secure better life for the human race.


Ⅵ. Tasks and Hopes for the Generation of New Historical Stage

1. Lessons we can learn from Japan’s historical predecessors

・Since I think most of listeners of my speech are young Japanese, let me quote a couple  of precious experience of Japanese historical predecessors who changed the history of our country and the world.
・One was the Meiji restoration and the other is the post war recovery and development as a global economic power.

ーThe Meiji Restoration
・Prior to Meiji restoration, Japan was reined by well structured feudal Tokugawa Government.
・Thanks to the well designed and rigorous government under seclusion policy, Japan  enjoyed 260 years of peaceful and stable era.
・On the other hand, Japan was left behind the global development of technology.
・People were shocked when black fleet of Commodore Perry visited Japan and urged  Japan to open the country.
・Young low class Samurais and enlightened farmers in Southern clans organized the  movement and toppled the Tokugawa government, which they deemed imperative to transform the feudal Japan to a modern country.
・Within a few decades they build the new government which made Japan a modern Industrial country.

ーPost WWII Recovery and Miraculous Economic Development
・Japan was beaten in the Pacific War against the US, and was occupied for the first time in Japan’s 2000 year history of civilization.
・The 6 years of occupation by the foreign soldiers was incredible hardship.
・However, only twenty years after the occupation, Japan resurrected as an economic  power in the world, which caught the attention of international community as  “Japan’s economic miracle.”
・There are many hypotheses as to why and how Japan managed to do it.
・Having studied in depth, I arrived at a conclusion that this recovery and remarkeble  development of Japan has been realized chiefly tremendous effort made by young  entrepreneurs such as Matsushita Konosuke of Matsushita Electric Mfg, Toyoda
Kiichiro of TOYOTA,Ibuka Masaru and Morita Akio of SONY and Honda Soichiro of HONDA.

・I hope young Japanese students spend some time to study such events of Japanese contemporary history and get some insights and courage from the experiences of  our predecessors.

2. Take advantage of Covid19 experience to create the new world
・History tells us, large scale epidemic has had profound impact to human society.

ーPest in 15th century
・Pest in 15th century gave huge damage to Medieval Europe.
・One third of population is said to have died because of Pest infection.
・Since most of the victims were working class people, feudal manors lost many of their serfs.
・ Lords of manors were obliged to pay wages to serfs to attract labor force.
・This undermined the basic structure of feudal system and finally gave rise to transition from medieval era to early modern era.
・Another impact was the decline of power of Catholic church.
・During the deadly pandemic, people realized that church was unable to save lives of people in spite of their claimed authority and accumulated huge assets.
・A German theologist, Martin Luther sharply attacked the deception of Catholic  Church, and later led the movement of Protestantism, which also helped change the  history toward modern era.

ーSpanish Flu in the early 20th century
・Another major experience was “Spanish Flu” which victimized the world about 100 years ago.
・Due to three major waves of pandemic, 40 million people lost their lives.
・Witnessing so many people of low income class suffered and died, a new thought of revised capitalism was proposed in Britain, democracy prevailed in Japan for sometime, Russin revolution took place.
・Such stream of social change was unfortunately overwhelmed by imperialism which led The world into WWII.

ーOpportunities unfolding with the impact of Covid19
・Covid19 is a major pandemic which has a historic and broad impact to our society
・In order to avoid infection, people try to keep social distance and not to get together nor move around.
・This did and will change the styles of work and life of people.
・People work as much as possible by remote communication. People live sparsely. These change of styles of work and life will change structure of cities and landscape.
・Taking advantage of these social changes, information and communication industries develop tremendously.
・Development of information industry, pushed by pervasive impacts of pandemic, may well change not only the styles of work and life, industry, cities and land of the county.

3. Solve old issues with new thoughts and create a new world

ーSolve old issues with new thoughts
・I hope the young generation, with gifted potentials, alert senses to be aware of pressing issues which they face, will challenge to tackle and solve the old issues by their fresh
thoughts and new technologies.

ーCreate an entirely new world on this planet
・Not only that, I hope the young generation, taking advantage of this rare opportunity, to challenge to create an entirely new society with new ideas, thoughts, norma, rules and even beliefs, just as Pest pandemic in 15th century changed the medieval
feudalistic era by opening the doors for the forthcoming modern era, to provide opportunities for diverse and heterogeneous people to live together peacefully cherishing this precious planet.

4. Pursue your career with a broad perspective and deep thinking
・You may be studying at university, may be working as a business person, may serve the government, may run a shop, may engage in a variety of occupations.
・No matter what you do, I think it is essentially important for you always to have a broad perspective to know what’s going on in the world and understand their meanings by deep thinking.
・This is because everyone of you are very important and critical existence of our global human community which is tied together closely by our communication technology.

・Let me conclude my lecture by wishing you a wonderful life for the future.

・Thank you.

Wish You Create a New Generation of Challenge:Part(1)

This is the manuscript of my lecture prepared for a Webinar lecture series entitled “Global Cultural Program” which is promoted by Tokyo Metropolitan Government as its campaign of “Internationalization of Tokyo.”

The program is to ask some globally eminent speakers such as Mr. Jacques Attali, famous French thinker of social and economic issues, Mr. Audrey Tang, ingenious information minister of Taiwan government, and Ms. Linda Gratton, professor of London Business school who is well known for her research and publication on aging societies where increasing proportion of people will reach age 100. Among them, I speak on the title “Wish You Create a New Generation of Challenge.”

The lecture series primarily targets young people such as college students in the form of Webinar, but subsequently released in Youtube for general public.

Since my lecture has been provided on line to students in May, I took liberty to provide the manuscript of my lecture in my blog separating in two segments for convenience of the readers.

 

「Wish You Create a New Generation of Challenge:Part(1)」

Lecture, Global Cultural Program, 2021
Memo. No.5
April 28, 2021

Haruo Shimada
President, Shimada Research Institute


Ⅰ. Introduction


ーHello! I am Haruo Shimada. I served TMU as chairperson until the end of March 2021.
ーIt is my great honor and pleasure to have this opportunity to talk with you and share ideas together.
ーFrom last year, we have been suffering from Covid19 pandemic, which is a very unique experience for all of us.

ーInconveniences and difficulties.
・I suspect that you suffered from many inconveniences and encounters difficulties.
・Unable to attend campus and join the classes and extra-curricular activities
・Social distance, stay home, unable to associate friends.
・Unable to travel, Particularly, unable to travel abroad, Impossible to study abroad,
・Obliged to change your study plan and career plan.

 ーEra of great changes
・We are living in an era of great changes. Covid19 is one. There are many other problems, such as climate change, global conflicts as symbolized by US-China confrontation, and increased economic and social differentials.
・As they get along, things will get worse. Disturb and harm our life and future.

ーHowever, there are opportunities for us to change the situation, change the world and change the history, particularly with the power and effort of young generation
・This is the theme I would like to talk with you and share our thoughts together.

・Let us begin my talk by examining major problems we are faced today.

 

Ⅱ. Serious Threats Encountering Young Generation


1. Covid 19
ーEmergence and spread of Covid19
・Covid19 was found to have emerged in China at the end of 2019 particularly in Wuhan
・It has spread rapidly throughout China within a month.
・Medical doctors and epidemic experts worked hard under the strong leadership of the government, and the spread has been confined within a few months.

・CV19 then spread to Asia and Europe. In Europe the infection spread widely.
・In March 2020、CV19 spread to the US, where infection exploded.

・In spite of highly developed medical technology and systems, the US suffered from the CV19 most seriously.
・They suffered from the largest number of infection and deaths largely because of political mistakes of Trump administration.

・CV were found to have spread widely to other countries such as Russia, Brazil and India, and many other areas of the world.
・The spread has been quick and broad perhaps because of highly developed global transportation systems of the contemporary world.
・Currently, infection in the world amounted to 145millions and 3million people died.

ーSpread confinement measures and man-made recession
・Since CV19 infects among people by breaths, people have been advised to take social distance. The governments required people to stay home and not to meet others.
The governments even locked down cities so that people cannot move around.

・Such policies suppress economic activities. Stores and transportation systems lost business opportunities. Unemployment increased, and people lost incomes.
This is a man-made acute recession which many countries had to suffer.

・In order to supplement income losses, and support victimized businesses, the government spent large amount fiscal money, which accumulated huge amount of government debt in many countries.
・Since much of such government fiscal spending was financed by government bonds, this became a huge burden for young and even future generations.

ーVaccination
・Scientists and medical industry worked very hard in several developed countries to create vaccines to beat the virus.
・While it usually takes several to even 10 years to develop such vaccines, a few advanced medical ventures, universities and drug makers invented new methodologies to develop vaccines within a year, which is a remarkable progress in this profession.

・Vaccination started in some countries toward the end of 2020. Some countries began to experience visible decline or slow down of infections, such as Israel and UK.
・Even the US, which has been suffering from the worst infection in the world, vaccination began to exhibit some effects of slowing down the spread of infection.

ーRemaining problems
・However, the vaccination does not seem to solve the issue as we hoped.
・One is the emergence and spread of virus variants. Since CV19 virus has only one belt to keep genetic code, unlike gene structure of other creature, genetic code may well collapse by any shock and create a different virus, which is a variant.
・This change often makes vaccines difficult to nullify the infection ability of the virus.
・The task of vaccine to chase the virus is not easy.

・The more serious problem is uneven distribution of vaccines among rich and poor countries. Since vaccines are expensive so that poor countries cannot have good access to obtain vaccines. It is the poor countries where people suffer most because of poor hygiene conditions and medical systems and services.
・WHO organizes an international organization called COVAC to supply vaccines to poor countries at low cost, but so far very little fund has been donated by rich countries.
・There are other problems associated with mis-conducts and policy mistakes by some governments. These human errors pose greater problems.
・We will discuss these problems later.


2. Climate change

ーGreenhouse effect
・Greenhouse effect: CO2 blocks radiation of sun-heat out of earth’s atmosphere
・Greenhouse effect increases with emission of CO2
・Since industrial revolution, industrialization increased CO2 emission markedly
・Av. temperature of the atmosphere increased by 1.0C for the period of more than 200 years since late 18th century till now.

ーIncreasingly apparent climate damages on the earth, creatures and human life.
・Increases of temperature give damages to the earth
・Increased temperature melts down ice on north and south poles causing heightening of sea level, resulting in sinking low level islands and shores, threatening lives of creatures and people.
・Increased temperature gives rise to empower typhoons giving more destructions.
・Changes in convection patterns within atmosphere causing irregular weathers resulting in drought and heavy rains and flood.

ーEfforts to slow down acceleration of greenhouse effect.
・Since the greenhouse effect has been accelerated by accelerating emission of greenhouse gases, most notably CO2, by increased industrial activity using fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gases in automobile transportation, iron manufacturing
and electric power generation.
・In recent years, many nations try to promote concerted actions to reduce carbon emissions participating to COP(Conference of the parties)activities.

・In 2015, 197 countries assembled together in Paris for COP21 and agreed to work for constraining the increase of average atmosphere temperature in 2050 less than 1.5C since the beginning of industrial revolution
・This movement has been disturbed by the leave of US led by Trump administration in 2017 from the Paris accord.

・However, Biden administration decided to come back to Paris Accord and has shown a strong wish to lead the international movement to combat against the greenhouse effect of the earth, as symbolized by Climate Change Summit proposed by
Joe Biden, which is a good news.

ーCan we stop the green house effect and save the world?
・The concerted action of international community to reduce carbon emissions is welcomed, but can we really control the increase of temperature within additional 0.5C within forthcoming 30years?
・Experts such view that the target is hardly achievable given the plans of participating  countries and the lack of cohesive cooperations of global community.

・Experts worry the incremental temperature may well exceed 2.0C by 2050.
・If that will be the case, the greenhouse effect will be aggravated much more and will exert much more destructive impacts on climate and the earth.
・Increased sea levels, flood, heavy rains draughts, mountain fires, destructive typhoons etc which will destruct living environment of creatures and human being.

・It is urgent and imperative for us to think more seriously to reduce greenhouse effect to save the earth and human living.


3. Global confrontations

ーThe US-Soviet cold war
・Currently, US-China confrontation is getting so acute that the world may look  as though it is beginning to suffer from the “new cold war.”
・Contemporary world history tells us that the world has suffered from “the cold war” since around 1950 till 1991. This war was between the US and Soviet  Russia.
・During this period, the world has been divided between Pax Americana, the group of allies and friendly democratic countries of the US, and the communist bloc which assemble satellite countries together under the leadership of Moscow.
・There has been almost no economic relations between the two blocs.
・On the other hand, military confrontation between the two blocs has been very acute.
・In fact, both blocs have accumulated destructive power of missiles and nuclear weapons enough to kill global populations more than several times.
・The cold war ended with the impasse of Soviet economy and the collapse of political system around 1991.

ーChinese growth and US response
・In contrast to this cold war, the relationship between the US and China is much  different.
・Unlike Soviet Russia, US and Chinese economies have been deeply intertwined.
・In fact, they are the largest trade and investment partners with each other.

・For 30years since the beginning of 1980s, Chinese GDP has kept growing remarkably annually about 10% by the strong leadership of Dong Xiaoping who promoted  “reform and open” policy. The economy grew several times during this period.
・He maintained the basic stance of “hiding your nails and accumulate power within.”
・In 1990s, the US leaders thought and hoped that with rapid economic development and accumulation of the middle class, China’s political system may well change to accommodate democracy.
・With this optimism, the US helped China to join WTO so that China can enjoy global trade and export as they wish including the US market.
・It is in this period when inter-penetration of US and Chinese economies deepened.

ーChinese pursuit of hegemony
・However, the US was disappointed painfully by the emergence of Xi Jinping.
・Unlike Don Xiaoping、Xi Jinping asserted strongly the power and the goal of PRC (People’s Republic of China) by the slogan of “Chinese Dream” by which China will build a powerful leading country of the world dispelling the deep grudge of  suppression by the Western powers since Opium War of 170 years ago.
・Xi plans to build a self-contained country by 2021, 100th anniversary of Chinese Communist Party, a middle level advanced country by 2035, and the powerful country to lead the world by 2049, the 100th anniversary of establishment PRC.
・Xi proposed a “New Large Country Relations” to the US in 2013, and launched  a mega global development plan “One Belt One Road” encompassing Asia to Europe.
・Facing with slowing down of the economy since 2010s, Xi claimed “New Normal Economy” by which to encourage and develop high-tech industry and promote DX.
・Many high-tech IT companies developed and promoted the economic transformation.
・Among them is Huawei Technologies, the most powerful IT communication devise manufacturer

ーUS-China hegemony war
・Facing with such development of China, while Obama administration maintained  “strategic patience,” Trump administration launched a furious policy to impose punishing sanction by imposing extra-ordinary high tariff on Chinese exports to the  US, which called forth Chinese retaliation and developed trade wars.
・Trump then focussed on Chinese high tech companies most notably Huawei as a spy company to steal information from its global 5G network to submit to Chinese Communist party and attacked Huawei and other high tech companies out of the global market. Trump’s action triggered a high tech hegemony war.

・Trump had to resign defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 presidential election.
・Biden administration dispelled Trump like policy against China though it has not lifted so far high tariffs against China.
・Biden administration exhibits a profound distrust against China particularly in the  sense of violation of human rights as shown by suppression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang district and suppression of democratic activists in Hong-kong.
・Perhaps because of relative decline in recent years of the superior US military power  against China, Biden administration asks allies to join US strategy of global sieging of China.


4. Economic and social differentials

ーDifferentials have been traditional problems of human societies
・In the current world、economic and social differentials are getting increasingly important and serious issues which impose many difficult problems to societies.
・Differentials among people have been existing in human societies in the long time.
・There have long been differentials among races, genders, religions, social status etc.

ーDifferentials aggravated by competitive capitalism
・In recent years, economic differentials have been aggravated by competitive capitalism
・As capitalist competition intensifies, businesses and countries transfer low paid jobs to  subcontractors and low wage countries, thus increasing economic differentials  among different classes of workers and between rich and poor countries.

ーDifferentials aggravated by DX
・With the remarkable development and penetration of digital transformation, the transfer of jobs to low wage regions and countries has been aggravated.

ーDifferentials causing political turmoils
・Such differentials aggravated by DX gave rise to political division of society as  exemplified by recent presidential elections in the US.
・Namely, those who lost jobs in the rust belt area of the US support strongly Mr. Donald Trump who accused China. The basic reason has been drastic reallocation of plants from high wage region of the US to low wage countries due to DX.
・Brexit took place by the similar reason of aggravated differential by globalization.

ーDifferentials related to CV pandemic
・In fighting against CV, poor countries are disadvantaged to secure vaccines which aggravates differentials stemming from medical services.

ーDifferentials relating to climate change
・Further, poor countries cannot afford to reduce carbon emissions and deter the  International effort to reduce greenhouse effect of climate change.
・Increases of economic and social differentials are a complex phenomena reflecting a variety of reasons and in turn give rise to new problems in the area of politics, spread of epidemics, and even climate change.

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